We invite submissions to our session on hazards across Earth’s surface. We are particularly interested to hear from a range of processes that lead to hazards and their interactions across diverse environments! The session will explore the cutting-edge science at the heart of the NSF-sponsored Center for Land Surface Hazards (CLaSH) catalyst proposal and recent NSF initiative to support fundamental research that informs adaptive and/or resilient responses to natural hazards and disasters (https://www.nsf.gov/pubs/2023/nsf23125/nsf23125.jsp).
EP006. Cascading Hazards: Linking Processes Across Earth’s Surface
Natural hazards often initiate a cascade of processes across the Earth’s surface that can propagate the consequences to life and property well beyond the triggering event. Both climatic (e.g., weather events, wildfire, and climate change) and geologic (e.g., earthquake and volcano) events can trigger landslides, debris flow, as well as multi-hazard chains related to sedimentation and floods. Moreover, the spatially variable and ever evolving properties of the Earth’s surface may induce a range of compound and cascading hazards as the landscape responds to these changing conditions. This session will highlight the cutting-edge science at the core of a proposed NSF-sponsored Solid Earth Geohazards Center for Land Surface Hazards (CLaSH). Presentations will explore both individual processes and the hazard cascade across a range of environments of Earth’s surface. We encourage submissions from various aspects of cascading hazard chains and approaches such as observational, theoretical, modeling, and applied studies.
Brian Yanites, Indiana University-Bloomington
Corina Cerovski-Darriau, USGS
Ben Mason, USGS
Seulgi Moon, UCLA
On August 17 – 20, 2023, Clash hosted a “Community Meeting” in Jackson, WY at the University of Michigan Camp Davis field station. Thirty members of the Clash team, partners, stakeholders and experts in the scientific community gathered to discuss progress with the Catalyst project, assess Center research and education goals, and contribute broadly to the Center Strategic Plan. The meeting was followed by an intense 1 ½ day planning session with the steering committee and PI team to draft the science plan of the Center.
Led by Steering Committee member Brian Yanites, we have initiated a research-based gap analysis and evaluation of data relevant to Center research themes, which we view as foundational to preparation of a Center strategic plan and necessary for exploring the connection between basic and applied science. A full draft of this white paper was shared at the 2023 Jackson Community Meeting where broad input was solicited. Scientific community engagement was advanced through focus groups that were developed at Community Meeting and engaged in regular meetings for two months. Focus groups contributed disciplinary specific knowledge to the paper effort from a broad cross-section of scientific disciplines. A complete document is planned for the end of the year.
Are you interested in studying land surface hazards like landslides and post-fire debris flow? And understanding how these processes relate to triggers like earthquakes and storms?
Does the study of extreme events to serve societal needs and advance understanding of how geomorphic systems work appeal to you?
Would training on cutting-edge technology to measure land surface change following disasters advance your graduate education?
If these questions speak to you, check out our graduate summer short-course sponsored by the Center for Land Surface Hazards (CLaSH). It’s a fully-funded opportunity by NSF to advance your skills, knowledge and connections to other researchers with a intensive, hands-on training experience in Colorado this summer. Better yet, it is an action-packed, six-day experience designed to fit into busy graduate student schedules. Your advisor is sure to say YES!
Eligibility: The course is open to any graduate student (MS or PhD) in relevant geoscience and engineering fields who is currently enrolled or matriculating in Fall 2023.
Course Description: This class will provide hands-on training for geodetic field surveys to generate high-resolution digital surface models and practical laboratory experience with data processing and digital surface model change detection. The study sites are mountain regions affected by the 2020 Cameron Peak fire that have experienced significant geomorphic change via post-wildfire erosion and flooding. Participants will gain hands-on experience with Uncrewed Arial Vehicles (UAVs) and Photogrammetry, Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS), and kinematic GPS and learn how to design and implement field surveys for surface change detection (supported by EarthScope Consortium). After the data acquisition is complete, participants will work with newly generated and existing datasets of the study sites to conduct change detection exercises in the computer lab on CSU’s Mountain Campus.
Dates: Arrive in Fort Collins, CO, in the early afternoon of Monday, July 17th, and buses will take participants to CSU’s Mountain Campus. Depart CSU’s Mountain Campus on the morning of Saturday, July 22nd.
Instructors: Erika Schreiber (EarthScope Consortium), Samuel Beane (EarthScope Consortium), Ben Mason (USGS), Sean F. Gallen (CSU)
Accommodations: Shared cabins with bunks (Conference Center Cabins). Each cabin has six rooms. Each room has three to four bunks and its own bathroom. The facility has a cafeteria where participants and instructors will eat breakfast and dinner. Most days, participants will be provided with a bagged lunch.
Planned Activities Outline:
July 17th – Arrive in Fort Collins, CO, in the early afternoon. Load onto busses and arrive at Mountain Campus to get settled before dinner and a safety and overview briefing of the upcoming schedule.
July 18th – Meet on campus for a summary of previous and ongoing work related to the post-fire hazard cascade. This will be followed by a lecture on the basics of the equipment used during the course and considerations of designing a survey. Depart Mountain Campus to visit the fire burn site. Break into groups and begin surveys. Return to the Mountain Campus before dinner.
July 19th – Depart Mountain Campus to visit the fire burn site. Break into groups and continue surveys. Return to the Mountain Campus before dinner.
July 20th – If needed, finalize field surveys and return to Mountain Campus after lunch for a lecture on data processing and digital surface model change detection.
July 21st – Work in groups on change detection assignments provided newly generated and pre-existing data from the survey area.
July 22nd – Depart Mountain Campus after breakfast for Fort Collins, CO.
April 24: APPLICATIONS DUE
May 8: Applicants are notified of review committee decisions
May 15: Selected applicants must confirm acceptance and commitment to attend
As the geoscience community confronts the challenges of interpreting and predicting the behavior of hazard cascades on a rapidly changing planet, we seek community input and vision on the formulation and coupling of models that address critical land surface processes. By convening a Modeling Expo in a two-part series, we will galvanize intellectual curiosity and creative thinking on hazard cascades. Most importantly, we invite you to attend and bring your modeling expertise!
Part 1: On May 1 and 2, the CLaSH team hosted a virtual Modeling Expo that featured 8 sessions with each focusing on individual process components of hazard cascades, such as flooding, landslides, earthquakes, and storms. The goals were to promote the awareness and study of hazard cascades, learn about state-of-the-art approaches to process modeling, and identify geoscientists with expertise and interest in our fall 2023 in-person workshop focused on model coupling and integration for risk assessment. The 2-day virtual event was advertised on numerous listservs and over 40 speakers from a wide array of career stages and backgrounds volunteered to present their work. In addition, the session coordinators recruited geoscientists with demonstrated expertise in surface process hazard modeling and the vast majority of those invited were eager to contribute. The speakers were asked to describe their models and implementation from a conceptual standpoint as well as imagine their contribution to coupled hazard cascade simulations. The sessions were composed of several 7-minute talks as well as ample time for discussion and synthesis at the conclusion of each session. CLaSH administrative staff were essential to the planning and execution of the event which enabled the CLaSH team to focus on science content.
The average attendance over the course of the Expo averaged over 100 and the sessions were recorded in order to encourage additional viewership. During each session, the CLaSH team facilitated questions that were generated by attendees via zoom chat and a google document and the result was a vibrant discussion with the speakers and other attendees. Notably, the Exposure and Risk session featured talks by federal agency social scientists and insurance experts among others and these highlighted the importance of translating surface process hazard modeling into accessible and legible products that can inform regulatory, commercial, and other societal decision-making. In addition, many of the sessions included talks featuring highly innovative modeling frameworks that reflect significant community investment in land surface cascade hazards.
9:00-10:30 am: Slope stability and landslide processes (Dimitrios Zekkos)
Luke McGuire (University of Arizona), “Process-based modeling of runoff-generated debris flows following fire”
Ning Lu (Colorado School of Mines), “A Paradigm for Predicting Rainfall-induced Landslides”
Ben Leshchinsky (OSU), “Inverse Analysis of Landslide Inventories to Parameterize Distributed Ground Failure Models”
Nick Sitar (UC Berkeley), “Efficient DEM modeling of rock slides and avalanches”
Dino Bellugi (UC Berkeley), “A multi-dimensional shallow landslide model coupled to critical zone structures and subsurface hydrology”
Dalia Kirschbaum (NASA), “Advancing multi-scale landslide hazard assessment with satellite data and machine learning for stakeholder applications”
Katy Barnhart (USGS), “Debris flow and landslide runout simulations for postfire and tsunami hazard assessment”
David Milledge (Newcastle, UK), “Improving landslide hazard information through better detection, prediction and communication”
Alex Gorr (University of Arizona), “A reduced-complexity model for post-wildfire debris-flow inundation”
10:30-11:15 am: Sediment transport and dispersal in fluvial systems (Brian Yanites)
Jon Czuba (Virginia Tech), “Modeling sediment dynamics in river networks”
Colin Phillips (Utah State), “High resolution channel response to flooding, wildfire and debris flows”
Jeff Keck (WA DNR), “Mass Wasting Runout: A new tool for assessing landslide hazard and potential sediment delivery to the channel network”
Angel Monslave (Idaho), “RiverBedDynamics – A Landlab component for computing two-dimensional sediment transport and river bed evolution”
11:15-12:00 pm: Exposure and risk (Corina Cerovski-Darriau)
Alex Dunant (Durham University), “Cascading multi-hazard modelling using graph theory”
Nate Wood (USGS), “Modeling societal vulnerability and risk reduction to natural hazards”
Jocelyn West (Natural Hazards Center, CU Boulder), “Assessing population exposure to landslide hazards in Puerto Rico”
JQ Su (Arbol), “Arbol’s hazard and climate models: a commercial perspective”
Part II: We will host a two-day in-person workshop in early fall 2023 that focuses on identifying future research and integration activities that would be needed to couple process models for advancing hazard cascade predictive capability.
The product of this two-part series will include a white paper and/or review paper that will help inform our NSF Geohazards Center proposal scheduled for submission in March 2024. We hope to attract a wide array of disciplinary scientists that bring a suite of new and exciting perspectives on modeling hazard cascades. Currently, our center catalyst is focused on the following generalized hazard cascade systems, although we anticipate revisiting and modifying these during the development of our proposal:
Fire-storm-landslide-flood (e.g., Montecito, CA 2018),
Climate change-thaw-cryosphere mass wasting-aggradation (e.g., Central Alaska),
The Center for Land Surface Hazards (CLaSH) Catalyst hosted its first successful Town Hall meeting to share plans and gather feedback from the scientific community. Nearly 70 attendees gathered to meet the Clash team over lunch and hear PI Marin Clark give an overview of the Center vision. Clash addresses an urgent societal need for resilience against land surface hazards such as landsliding and flash flooding, which occur in nearly every country and are increasing in frequency due to climate change. Clark stressed that despite this importance, we lack the community efforts of seismic and volcanic scientists around these hazards. She argued that the time is ripe for disciplinary impact as well as the opportunity to bring together the geomorphology scientific community.
The Clash team discussed the scientific goal of the center with attendees through active polling, Q&A periods and a long discussion following the main period of the event. Attendees weighed in on the Center vision to develop a synoptic understanding of the “hazard cascade”: how successive events amplify hazard during the event and persist for years to decades. They discussed how the proposed Center will lead science innovation through development of predictive and probabilistic frameworks for interconnected hazards. Clash proposes to advance integration of modeling and sensing data and incorporate new technologies, data and methods with cutting-edge process models. Attendees were asked to rank and vote on several broad aspects of the plan. The Q&A period gave attendees the opportunities to ask the Clash team how various components of the center would interact with other community-based research efforts such as GEER, the NASA DISASTERS program, OpenTopography and CSDMS. Attendees also offered ideas for both research engagement and broader impacts efforts like technical development of “cheap” sensor networks, ethical engagement in field response expeditions and establishing connections to HBCUs, tribal and community colleges. Community protocols, data curation and standardization were also of high interest. Clark described pilot programs happening in the next year including a community workshop, modeling “expo”, graduate student summer school. Numerous smaller efforts are aimed at capturing scientific community expertise and establishing connections with partners beyond academia.
A summary of the presentation and feedback can be found here.