As the geoscience community confronts the challenges of interpreting and predicting the behavior of hazard cascades on a rapidly changing planet, we seek community input and vision on the formulation and coupling of models that address critical land surface processes. By convening a Modeling Expo in a two-part series, we will galvanize intellectual curiosity and creative thinking on hazard cascades. Most importantly, we invite you to attend and bring your modeling expertise!
Part I: We will host two half-day virtual gatherings on May 1-2 that consist of several process-focused sessions. These sessions will allow participants and invited speakers to present short talks providing an overview of specific models and modeling approaches. Presentations will be followed by Q&A. Our intent is to use these sessions to explore the “landscape” of possible models that could be applied to one or more of our land surface hazard cascades.
The schedule for the May 1-2, 2023, virtual Modeling Expo is as follows:
Monday, May 1, 2023 (All times Pacific)
- 8:00-9:00 am: Critical zone and near-surface properties
- 9:00-10:00 am: Geologic forcing (e.g., earthquakes, eruptions)
- 10:00-11:00 am: Climate/environmental forcing (e.g., storms, fire,, climate)
- 11:00-12:00 pm: Cryosphere processes (e.g., thawing, thermokarst)
Tuesday, May 2, 2023
- 8:00-9:00 am: Hydrology and flood routing
- 9:00-10:30 am: Slope stability and landslide processes
- 10:30-11:15 am: Sediment transport and dispersal in fluvial systems
- 11:15-12:00 pm: Exposure and risk
Part II: We will host a two-day in-person workshop in early fall 2023 that focuses on identifying future research and integration activities that would be needed to couple process models for advancing hazard cascade predictive capability.
The product of this two-part series will include a white paper and/or review paper that will help inform our NSF Geohazards Center proposal scheduled for submission in March 2024. We hope to attract a wide array of disciplinary scientists that bring a suite of new and exciting perspectives on modeling hazard cascades. Currently, our center catalyst is focused on the following generalized hazard cascade systems, although we anticipate revisiting and modifying these during the development of our proposal:
- Fire-storm-landslide-flood (e.g., Montecito, CA 2018),
- Climate change-thaw-cryosphere mass wasting-aggradation (e.g., Central Alaska),
- Earthquake-landslide-storms-damming-outburst floods (e.g., Gorkha EQ, 2015).